Since August of 2022, the Bloomberg consensus has placed a probability of 50% or more on a US recession occurring within the next 12 months. However, despite 525 basis points of tightening and a still hawkish Fed, a soft landing appears increasingly likely.
This article from our investment partner TD Epoch explains what underpins the US economy’s surprising strength. Epoch believes there are three reasons why US activity has held up better than expected: the lingering impact of the aggressive COVID stimulus packages, the renaissance of industrial policy (which has led to a manufacturing construction boom), and the still accommodative stance of broader financial conditions.
Click here to read the article and complete the CPD quiz for 0.5 CPD (general knowledge).
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